START_BALANCE
PAYOUT_PCT
×1.92/win
STAGES
6 rounds
STAKE_PCT
of bal/trade
FINAL
$500.96
PROFIT
+$490.96
ROI
4909.6%
BE_WR
52.1%
KELLY
16.5%
GOAL
$→6 STAGESLADDER
STG
STAKE
+PROF
-LOSS
→ IF_WIN
RISK_REALITY
WIN_PROB
%EDGE
+7.9pp
TRADE_EV
+15.2%
KELLY
16.5%/trade
STG
P(REACH)
E[OUT]
SESSION_EV
VERDICT
[1]
60.0%
$11.52
+$1.52+15%
+EV
[2]
36.0%
$13.27
+$3.27+33%
+EV
[3]
21.6%
$15.29
+$5.29+53%
+EV
[4]
13.0%
$17.61
+$7.61+76%
+EV
[5]
7.8%
$20.29
+$10.29+103%
+EV
[6]
4.7%
$23.37
+$13.37+134%
◆ OPTIMAL
Full stake: any loss = bust. Need 52.1% WR.▸ STOP @ STAGE 6
DRAWDOWN_RISK
50%
BUST_PROB
96%
WORST_CASE
$0.00
MAX_DD_P95
100%
STREAK
ODDS
BAL · % START
1× LOSS
95%
$0.00(0%)
2× LOSS
50%
$0.00(0%)
3× LOSS
18%
$0.00(0%)
4× LOSS
6%
$0.00(0%)
5× LOSS
2%
$0.00(0%)
▸ 96%% bust risk over 6 stages · median max DD 100%